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The Tesla Bull Case in Brief

The Tesla Bull Case in Brief
Disclaimer
I have no financial position in Tesla at this point in time and no interest in initiating one within the next month.

Introduction

There seems to be a strong sentiment among some that Tesla is vastly overvalued, and that the current stock price is completely unrooted in reality. I understand the viewpoint, but don't really share the belief. That's not particularly surprising as I consider myself a Tesla optimist. I decided to present in brief the case for Tesla's valuation as I understand it.

Overvalued?

Tesla's current market capitalisation appears to be grossly overvalued, especially when compared to their peers in the automotive sector as the below charts so clearly illustrate:
Comparison of Tesla to European and American Automakers
In fact, the charts actually understate things as Tesla's market cap currently seats at around $464 billion. You could add another Daimler to the US and EU listed companies and they would still have a lower market capitalisation than Tesla.
This really is the case for Tesla being overvalued: it's automotive revenues is many times it's current market capitalisation. Per MarketWatch, Tesla's trailing PE is 978.44, so it's not as if Tesla is especially profitable either.
On a fundamentals basis, Tesla appears to be grossly overvalued.

Growth

The above chart doesn't necessarily indicate that Tesla's current market capitalisation is an extremely speculative bubble that could burst soon, but more that Tesla is not valued based on its current financial situation. Tesla is valued as an extreme growth company, and it's growth over the past five years bears this out.
Revenue
Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth (%)
2008 15 -
2009 112 646.67
2010 117 4.46
2011 204 74.36%
2012 413 102.45
2013 2,013 387.41
2014 3,198 58.87
2015 4,046 26.52
2016 7,000 73.01
2017 11,759 67.99
2018 21,461 82.51
2019 24,578 14.52
Source (Macro Trends)

To contextualise this, here's Tesla's trailing CAGR:
Time span CAGR (%)
5 years 50.36%
7 years 79.27%
10 years 71.45%
Over the last decade, Tesla has demonstrated formidable growth. There's reason to believe that they can continue to show impressive growth (albeit lowered going forward).
The first two quarters of 2020 were battered by a pandemic (Tesla factories faced lockdowns due to the pandemic), and as a result are somewhat of an exception. There were no lockdowns during Q3.
Looking at Tesla's Q3 results, we see that the formidable growth story continues;
Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Growth (%)
Vehicle Deliveries 97,186 139,593 44
Automotive Revenues (USD millions) 5,353 7,611 42
Storage Deployed (MW) 477 759 59
Solar Deployed 43 57 33
Energy Revenue 402 579 44
Total Revenue (USD millions) 6,303 8,771 39
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Going Forward
Wall Street seems to expect the growth story to continue. Per Market Insider, here are the consensus analyst estimates for the next five years:
Year Revenue (USD Millions) Growth (%)
2020 30,626 24.61
2021 44,937 46.73
2022 55,963 24.54
2023 79,620 42.27
2024 102,526 28.77
Source (Markets Insider)

I personally think that analyst consensus estimates are significantly underestimating Tesla's growth. In particular their figures for 2020 seem off by $2 billion or more. Analyst estimates for Q3 2020 were off by $495 million, and the estimate of $9,884M for Q4 seems off by around $1,500M (assuming Tesla meets the 180K delivery target) without accounting for the recognition of any deferred revenue. Tesla had $1,258M in deferred revenue at the end of Q3.
This may seem optimistic, but you're welcome to hold me to do this on January 28th 2021.
Despite their (potential) underestimation of Tesla, analysts expect a 5 year CAGR in 2024 of 33%. Tesla is expected to continue to show formidable growth to the end of the decade.

Expansion
Tesla would execute on this formidable growth story through capital expenditure. They will build numerous service centres and gigafactories. The goal is to have giga factories on all 6 economic continents (with some continents having several factories) in order to lower the expenses involved in distributing the cars and to streamline logistics. Currently, Tesla is building two new gigafactories in Berlin and Austin and is currently expanding Giga Shanghai.
An inherent assumption is that the market has the demand to absorb all this extra supply. Many states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles:
Schedule for the phase out of fossil fuel passenger vehicles
Source (Wikipedia)

Around 13 states have committed to phasing out ICE vehicles on or before 2030. Over the coming decade, the EV total addressable market is projected to grow to 27 million by 2030 (at a CAGR of 21%). This again seems a bit too conservative. EV sales were down in the first half of 2020 (due to the pandemic), but in July sales grew 77% YoY. Some states have also pulled forward their timelines for phasing out fossil fuels since the forecast was initially made.
Tesla would face stiff competition going forward, but the total addressable market would grow fast enough to absorb all of Tesla's growth in supply if they can successfully market their vehicles. The risk here is that Tesla would fail to execute not that the total addressable market isn't large enough.
As an optimist, I'm fine betting on Tesla's ability to execute.

Access to Capital
To fund the massive expansion expected of them, Tesla would need to spend a lot on capital expenditure. Fortunately, access to capital is not a problem for Tesla.
  • Tesla's cash on hand at the end of Q3 2020 was $14.5 billion.
    • Per their 10Q filing this is already sufficient to fund their capex needs up to 2023.
  • Free cash flow for the quarter was $1,395M.
  • Giving their current market capitalisation ($464 billion) and the mandatory demand from index funds on their inclusion ($60 billion), Tesla has an opportunity to raise $10 - $20 billion in a new capital raise.
    • A $20 billion raise would give them enough cash on hand at the end of 2020 to finance their expansion plans for several years going forward.
  • Free cash flow is expected to rise going forward:
    • In Q3 there was a 234% increase QoQ and a 276% increase YoY.
    • Tesla has been seeing increased efficiency of capital expenditures.

Margins

Another component of the Tesla bull case is that in addition to hyper growth in revenues, Tesla's profit margins would also rise significantly over the next decade. This is readily apparent if we look at Tesla's past four quarters:
Tesla's Trailing 4 Quarters Revenue and profits
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Automotive gross margins have steadily risen from 22.8% a year ago to 25.4% last quarter and seem set to continue their upwards trajectory. Total gross margins have risen from 18.9% to 23.5%. There are good reasons to expect the rise to continue and maybe even accelerate going forward:
  • Manufacturing Efficiencies
  • Network Services

Manufacturing Efficiencies
As Tesla continues to ramp up production and innovate, they will be able to drive down the manufacturing cost of their vehicles, benefit even further from economies of scale (both in their production and their supply lines as EV demand heats up globally). Tesla's capital expenditure will become even more efficient; they will be able to squeeze out more manufacturing capacity, from the same amount of capital expenditures.
Tesla's rise in capex efficiency is apparent when you compare their capex expenditure in 2020 (construction of Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, Fremont Model Y ramp, and expansion of Giga Shanghai) to capex expenditure in 2017 (Fremont Model 3 ramp):
Tesla's Capex Expenditures Q4 2016 - Q3 2020
Source (Hypercharts)

Despite the lower capex in 2020, Tesla is building a lot more cars:
Tesla Vehicle Production Q1 2016 - Q3 2020
Source (Statista)

In addition to the aforementioned favourable trends, there are concrete reasons to expect Tesla to perform very well on the capex efficiency front over the next decade. At Tesla's battery day, Tesla laid out a roadmap to drastic increases in efficiency:
Vertical Integration Benefits
Source (Tesla Investor Relations)

Tesla is forecasting a 69%!!! increase in capex efficiency in the coming years.
Furthermore, the cost of batteries is forecast to fall by as much as 56%. Batteries are a significant component of the total cost, and the reduction in the cost of batteries would further improve Tesla's margins.
Aside from batteries, and capex efficiency, Tesla should also be able to drive down the cost of manufacturing other components of their electric cars due to Wright's Law.
While Tesla would pass on some of these cost savings to the consumer, they wouldn't pass on all of them. This is evidenced by Tesla's improved margins in 2020 despite several price cuts.

Network Services
Tesla's network services are included with their automotive revenues, but represent a novel high margin business that isn't part of the traditional automotive playbook. Using Tesla's fleet as the platform, Tesla can sell software products, subscriptions and other services to their customers. The recurring revenue of subscriptions in particular is a cause for optimism (especially given the potential high margins).
Tesla's existing products:
  • Software
    • Full Self Driving: $10,000
    • Enhanced Autopilot: $4,000
      • This isn't currently available was previously an option
    • Acceleration Boosts
      • Model 3: $2,000
      • Model Y: $2,000
  • Subscriptions
    • Premium Connectivity: $10/month
    • Full Self Driving: ???
      • Reportedly coming soon
  • Miscellaneous
    • Supercharging
Tesla has only a few such products now, but they would likely develop more such products in time. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas referred to this as "the internet of cars".

Beyond Traditional Automotive Revenues

It's a common statement among Tesla bulls that Tesla is not just an automaker. In my experience sceptics tend to be annoyed by this and (rightly) point out that the supermajority of Tesla's revenue comes from traditional automotive endeavours (selling their cars). While this is true now, it's not necessarily the case 10 years from now, and there's reason to believe that traditional automotive activities may no longer constitute a majority of Tesla's revenue, and may represent an even smaller portion of Tesla's profits.
I'll cover some other businesses of Tesla's that are poised to grow over the next 10 years:
  • The aforementioned Network Services
  • Energy
  • Ridesharing
  • Insurance

Energy
Tesla's energy business is poised to benefit substantially from the shift towards renewable power sources. In particular, Tesla's battery storage businesses stands a lot to gain. Per the Financial Times, total energy storage capacity would grow rapidly over the coming decade to over 700 Gwh by 2030:
Projections for Energy Storage
Source (Financial Times)

The total addressable market is once again large enough to soak up hyper growth from Tesla over the next decade. Musk himself has stated that he expects Tesla's energy business to be as large as their automotive business long term (a reminder that Tesla's targeted end state is 20 million cars per year).
A refresher on Tesla Energy's available products:
  • Solar
    • Tesla solar panels: $1.49/watt (after incentives)
    • Solar Roof
  • Battery Storage
    • Power Wall (residential)
    • Power Pack (commercial)
    • Mega Pack (utility scale)

Ridesharing
If Tesla can sufficiently advance their autonomy technology, they may finally be able to launch their autonomous ridesharing network. While Tesla's autonomy technology is currently not yet up to par for this application, their ongoing beta has been rapidly improving with weekly updates. The beta testers have been reporting significant improvements in capability since it was rolled out a month ago.
The bet is that Tesla would be able to reach superhuman driving capability before 2025. Their location agnostic approach would let them scale up operations much more quickly than geofenced competitors (e.g. Waymo).

Insurance
Tesla collates extensive data regarding vehicle usage and the driving patterns of their customers. Combined with their driver assist software, Tesla should be in a privileged position regarding risk assessments for Tesla customers. Using their abundant available data, Tesla may be able to prepare the most compelling insurance package for a sizable fraction of Tesla drivers.
Tesla insurance may also have a synergistic relationship with Tesla's warranty processing and service centres. Tesla insurance customers may be offered discounts on service that wouldn't be available to customers of other insurance providers.

Expectations

For public accountability purposes, I'll register my Tesla expectations for this year, next year and 2025. I'm not a financial analyst or otherwise particularly financially savvy, so I'll keep it pretty simple. I'll report my 25% - 75% confidence interval on the following metrics:
  • Vehicle deliveries
  • Total revenue

25% 75%
2020 Deliveries 160,000 200,000
2020 Revenue (USD millions) 30,000 36,000
2021 Deliveries 800,000 1,200,000
2021 Revenue (USD millions) 48,000 78,000
2025 Deliveries 3,000,000 5,000,000
2025 Revenue (USD millions) 135,000 350,000

The growing variation in the interquartile range is a representation of my growing uncertainty about the business.
I have neither a price target for $TSLA nor concrete expectations for its stock price (I've said in public before that $TSLA might go to $200 before going to $600:
https://preview.redd.it/v86gdkbhyz061.png?width=873&format=png&auto=webp&s=b26af1f3c8bfdf0048c7f9977ba366dcb344c12a

I simply believe that Tesla will demonstrate hyper growth over the next decade and have a > 10 year investment horizon, so I would be comfortable investing in $TSLA using dollar cost averaging.

Closing Remarks

Many are dubious regarding Tesla's ability to deliver on the formidable vision outlined above. There are certainly numerous risks that may challenge Tesla's ability to deliver on hyper growth. However, as mentioned above, the main challenge to the hypergrowth narrative is execution risks. Fundamentally, it's a question of if Tesla can execute on the vision presented above. Giving their formidable track record so far (and the comparatively less than impressive records of the sceptics), I'm willing to bet that they can.

Additional Disclosure
While I have no financial position in $TSLA, I'm sort of an anomalous case. I only became interested in investing a couple of months ago, and I decided to defer any investments I would make until January 2021 to mitigate exposure to political risks. If I did have a portfolio, I'd expect $TSLA would feature in it (probably at around a 10% initial weighting).
submitted by DragonGod2718 to u/DragonGod2718

How much "content" is there actually in Genshin Impact? Showcase of potential playtime that's ruined by a terrible NRG system. Thoughts and discussion.

How much
*The post is being edited right now due to data loss, the initial post was weirdly cut by a lot but I managed to get most of it back. I will be going further into detail with the drops etc. as I edit, but for now, bare with me.
*Disclaimer - I’m aware some of the math isn't perfect and that I’m missing things. This isn’t supposed to give a precise estimate but rather a rough one putting into perspective how much it would approximately take. It’d likely be a few days shorter and a couple hundred resin cheaper, but the main issue was shown just fine, with the incredible cost of time and resin needed. Again, the math isn’t perfect and I’ve not mentioned everything, it’s just supposed to demonstrate roughly, not be a precise guide or something to go by.

System 2 Type A is king.

Based on https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jarax7/my_views_on_how_resin_can_be_changed_for_the/
Everything should be farmable without any limitations, in my opinion.
Non-Resin runs should NOT give AR EXP. This should be a thing strictly limited to resin usage and other regular ways of obtaining it such as quests and commissions.
Doing content that currently requires resin without spending resin should naturally reward less loot, say 1/2 or even 1/3. This would have to be carefully tweaked as some domains like artifacts drop several items, ranging from 6-9 per run while talent domains drop a meager 2-3(per drop).
This way, people can play and farm to their hearts content, whenever they want, however they want, whatever they want. And there is absolutely nothing bad about it.
—————

Addressing common arguments and putting into perspective how much content there ACTUALLY is.

I’ve read many people say „don’t rush the game, its your own fault you got nothing to do now, you’ll burn yourself out“ and that it “would kill the game“. I‘m really trying to understand, but I can't. It makes no sense.
How would people spending more time in the game kill the game?
People also won't suffer a burnout from this, people get burnt out due to stress. Seriously, it's the actual definition:
"Burnout is a state of emotional, physical, and mental exhaustion caused by excessive and prolonged stress. It occurs when you feel overwhelmed, emotionally drained, and unable to meet constant demands."
Are you telling me people will get burnt out doing something they love and enjoy? Do you get burnt out by spending time with your wife, girlfriend or family? Are you beginning to see how that makes no damn sense?
If you do end up feeling like you're unable to meet the "constant demands" the game has, then it's best to to calm down a little and take a break. Since it's a PvE game, there is no rush at all, no competition to keep up with and no leaderboards or such.
Now, I'm not oblivious to "too many good things can be a bad thing". It's a very real issue that haunts people in multiple areas, be is social life or games. I can honestly not say anything aside from "take some time to yourself", it's a complicated and delicate topic, so let's not get into that too much.
Anyway, I‘ve also read quite often that „we would run out of things to do“.
You’ve got to be kidding.
Have you got any idea how long it would take to “run out of things to do“?
Do you understand what kind of game this is you’re playing?
Do you understand that farming an artifact set with optimal stats for a single character can literally take weeks, if not months? I really wish I exaggerating...
Now, I know that most people using this argument either have not yet arrived at the point where resin becomes a significant limiter or simply do not understand the stat-systems. Maybe they also don’t care enough?

Getting into the nitty-gritty, here's some rough RNG data about artifacts.

Getting back on track, let’s say we do end up getting the System 2 Type A change, we would still need an indefinite amount of actively playing for several hours a day to get one optimal artifact set due to the RNG based rewards.
Let's say we got really lucky and it only took us 7 days at 3h of farming or 21 hours of total playtime)
This is a very rough approximate and may or may not take less/more time due to the RNG of the system. It could honestly take you months, based on your luck.
How long would it take with our current system? It's honestly impossible to say, you may get really lucky and be done in a day, or never ever finish. I dare say though, it would take drastically longer, simply because of the limitations our current system has in place. It doesn't help that DEF and HP rolls seem to be way more dominant than other stat rolls. Not very motivating, now is it? Anyway, I digress.
Now, just as an example and it might take less or more time as said, but let's simply settle on this number for a rough average.
Let's say we spend 160 resin each day simply from it recovering on it's own and run artifact domains 8 times a day. We get really lucky and get our full "optimal" set within 15 days, which equates to 2.400 resin.
You think I'm exaggerating? I wish I was, but this is the nature gear with RNG stats...
Cool. What now? The character needs to be leveled..?

Onwards to leveling!

Now that artifacts are sorted out we need to level up our newly obtained Xingqiu. This requires (radically) increasing amounts of Mora and EXP books the higher you climb.
Thanks to static leylines rewards, we can do proper calculations here unlike with artifacts.
Let me give you a more "mid level" example of how expensive this is. (see https://genshin-impact.fandom.com/wiki/Character_Experience for reference, decimals are rounded for simplicity).
My Barbara right now is Lv.50.
To reach Lv.60, she requires a total of 955.000 EXP. Going from 50 to 60 requires 191.000 Mora.
One blue EXP Book gives 5.000 EXP and costs 1.000 Mora to use. One purple EXP Book gives 20.000 EXP and costs 4.000 Mora to use.
At AR35, blue leylines drop 6-7 blue books and 2-3 purple books for 20 resin.
At AR35, yellow leylines drop 44.000 mora for 20 resin.
To obtain 955.000 EXP worth of books you have to spend either **191 blue books or 48 purple books.**In the worst case scenario, always getting the minimum amount drops, we would have to do the blue leylines 14 times for 84 blue books(420.000 EXP) and 28 purple books(560.000 EXP).14x 20 resin which equates to 280 resin.
To obtain 191.000 mora, you have to spend 5x 20 resin which equates to 100 resin.
That's 380 resin to level a single character from 50 to 60. Almost 3 full days of resin, assuming 160 is used daily without any refills.
I am not taking books and mora obtained from different sources into account for the sake of demonstration.
—————
Now that you understand this, let's use the same demonstration to see how much it would cost to get a new character, for example Xingqiu to Lv.70(AR35 cap, the -by now- average among players).
Lv.1 to Lv.70 requires a total of 3.465.825 EXP and 696.000 Mora.
To obtain 3.465.825 EXP worth of books you have to spend either **694 blue books or 174 purple books.**In the worst case scenario, always getting the minimum amount drops, we would have to do the blue leylines 50 times for 300 blue books(1.500.000 EXP) and 100 purple books(2.000.000 EXP).50x 20 resin which equates to 1000 resin.
To obtain 696.000 mora you have to spend 16x 20 resin which equates to 320 resin.
So, for a singular character, ignoring all other income, you will have to spend 1.320 resin ON JUST LEVELING. That's 11 days of farming daily with the current system.
However we are forgetting something.
Starting Lv.20, we have to ascend our characters. After initially 20 more levels(to Lv.40) and every subsequent 10 levels - with increasing material cost - we have to ascend them again and again. While the first ascension is very cheap, the one at Lv.40 starts hammering down on your resources, including mora.
Ascending to 2*(Unlock Lv.50) requires 0 boss specific items + 20.000 Mora
Ascending to 2*(Unlock Lv.50) requires 2 boss specific items + 40.000 Mora
Ascending to 3*(Unlock Lv.60) requires 4 boss specific items + 60.000 Mora
Ascending to 4*(Unlock Lv.70) requires 8 boss specific items + 80.000 Mora
Bosses on average drop 2 of the item each time they're defeated.
We require a total of 14 boss specific items and 200.000 mora.
2 items cost 40 resin.
14 items cost 280 resin.
200.000 mora costs 100 resin.
TOTALAscension cost is 380 resin.
You will also require materials obtained from the open world, but since those are much more accessible, I will not go out my way to mention them. The amount needed however is not to be underestimated, alas, it will be the least of your worries as long as you grab what you need daily.
Tl;dr: Collect your daily items like Dandelion Seeds, Philanemo Mushrooms and defeat elite mobs like Abyss Mages and Fatui Skirmishers for their drops.
That's another 3 days it will take us.
There is other boss specific items we require, but these have RNG based drops, so for the sake of sanity, let's just say you always drop the required amount...
So now, finally, after 14 days of actively farming and 1.600 resin, we have a Lv.70 Xingqiu. Assuming we had no resources at all at the beginning.

Knock-knock. There's a package for you. It's got a letter inside that says Xingqiu still needs a weapon.

Alright, let's grab our Xingqiu a decent 4* weapon. We got "The Flute" laying around, what now? We've got to upgrade it!
Luckily, the weapon EXP materials are not too hard to come by and require no resin at all, just a bit of time to go around the world collecting Iron, White Iron and Crystal Ore and making use of the Expedition system. I personally really like this as you get to defeat enemies on the way, collect some region specific mats and sometimes find chests that have respawned. Also, trash weapons can also be used as fodder.
I do my routine every 48h from the moment I harvest my hotspots. This is because it gives enough time for all crystal deposits to respawn. When I go to collect them all I normally end up with something around 80~ crystals depending on how lucky I was.
Cool, now we can turn these 80 crystals into 3* Enhancement Ore!
20 crystals make 5 ore, meaning we got 20x 3* ore!
We can also obtain some crystal ore through expeditions, a maximum of 8***(7-8)*** **per expedition for each 20h.We have 3 locations that reward us with crystal ore, so we can obtain 24 every 20h.**For simplicities sake, I will think of these 20h as 24h as that's when I usually grab them anyway and it makes calculating easier.
If we line this up with our 48h farm window, we obtain an additional 48 crystal ore per 48h, which translates to 12x 3* Enhancement Ore.
We now know that we gain approx. 32x 3* enhancement ore every 48h.
Each one of these is worth 10.000 weapon EXP and costs 1.000 mora to use.
How much does it cost to level a 4* weapon from 1 to 70 you ask?
Let's have a look. (see https://www.gensh.in/genshin-impact/mechanics/weapons for reference. I'm only using crystals and 3\ ore for the sake of simplicity, 2* and 1* mats are just as good as EXP source)*
Leveling a 4* Sword from Lv.1 to Lv.70 will require a total of 3.228.275 EXP.This translates to 323x 3* Ore.
Considering I get an average haul of 32x 3* ore every 48h, this would take me approx. 10x 48h which equates to 20 days of farming crystals.
Let's not forget the mora cost of 1.000 per 3* ore.
323x 3* ore equates to 323.000 mora.
323.000 mora will cost us 8x 20 resin. 160 resin total. If resin is used wisely, you can actually bang this out in 1 day.
This means weapon leveling materials will roughly take us 21 days to farm.
BUT WAIT, THERE IS MORE!
Just like characters, we have to ascend our weapons every now and then! At Lv.20, 40, 50 and 60 so we can level it up to Lv.70. This will cost more mora, which will cost more resin.
The really expensive part comes in now however.

Introducing Weapon Ascension Materials!

Let's say we got our Xingqiu "The Flute", a pretty nice weapon. To ascend it, we require mats that are somewhat easily obtained from the open world enemies but also mats that drop exclusively in domains. Domains that cost resin.
I will only be stating the domain item's since the open world ones are accessible pretty much all the time, alas the higher tier mats tend to be a little rare and obtaining them shouldn't be underestimated. (see https://www.gensh.in/database/weapon/the-flute for reference)
1* Ascension(Lv.40 unlock) - 3x Boreal Wolf's Milk Tooth(2-3 per 20 resin, safe drops at AR35) + 5.000 Mora.
2* Ascension(Lv.50 unlock) - 3x Boreal Wolf's Cracked Tooth(1-3 per 20 resin, safe drops at AR35) + 15.000 Mora.
3* Ascension(Lv.60 unlock) - 3x Boreal Wolf's Cracked Tooth(1-3 per 20 resin, safe drops at AR35) + 20.000 Mora
4* Ascension(Lv.70 unlock) - 3x Boreal Wolf's Broken Fang(1 per 20 resin, low drop rate at AR35) + 30.000 Mora.
**Our main focus should be on the "Boreal Wolf's Broken Fang items.**Since these are rather rare and do not always drop unlike the other 2, I will be using my personal experience at around AR35-39 to gauge the drops.
While I was farming them, they used to drop once every 4 domain runs, costing me 80 resin. It is important to note that while they may not always drop, the lower rarity ones do and these can be used in alchemy to speed things up.
Let us assume a purple item is dropped every 3rd run.
We need a total of:
3x Boreal Wolf's Milk Tooth(Green)
6x Boreal Wolf's Cracked Tooth(Blue)
3x Boreal Wolf's Broken Fang(Purple)
Within 6 domain runs, which equates to 120 resin and therefor a day worth of time as well as assuming okay-ish RNG, you should have roughly:
12x Boreal Wolf's Milk Tooth(Green)
12x Boreal Wolf's Cracked Tooth(Blue)
2x Boreal Wolf's Broken Fang(Purple)
Substracting the 1*, 2* and 3* cost, that leaves us with:
9x Boreal Wolf's Milk Tooth(Green)
6x Boreal Wolf's Cracked Tooth(Blue)
2x Boreal Wolf's Broken Fang(Purple)
We can now use alchemy and turn 3 blue excess items we have into 1 purple. Whether or not this is worth it is up to the player, I personally would do it if I have no other need for the mats and purple drop rates suck ass, so that's that.
With 3 blues now turned into 1 more purple, we can finally max our weapon out. It cost us another 120 resin, meaning a day of recharging.
Add 70.000 mora on top and that's another 40 resin we have to spend on leylines.
Total resin cost of the weapon was 160.
Finally, our Xingqiu is up there and ready to go... What's that? An E-Mail saying I need to upgrade talents..?

INTRODUCING TALENTS.

As you ascend your character, you will gain the ability to upgrade their talents. Their basic attack, elemental skill as well as elemental burst.
Doing so will cost you materials and mora. Some materials are obtained from the open world while the others are well... domain drops. Domain drops mean resin. How much? Let's crunch some numbers and find out.
At AR35, the maximum TalentLv. is 6. Only the first upgrade requires Tier 1(green) books, with all subsequent up to Lv.6 require Tier 2(blue) books.
Lv.1->Lv.2 requires 3x 1* Books + 12.500 Mora
Lv.2->Lv.3 requires 2x 2* Books + 17.500 Mora
Lv.3->Lv.4 requires 4x 2* Books + 25.000 Mora
Lv.4->Lv.5 requires 6x 2* Books + 30.000 Mora
Lv.5->Lv.6 requires 9x 2* Books + 37.500 Mora
How much is this in resin? Well, so far, farming this during my time being AR35-39 they always dropped 2 of each, every single run, meaning 2 items equate to 20 resin.
We require a total of 3x 1* and 21x 2* books. As with most other mats, you can use alchemy here to save resin.
Instead of running 10 times, using 200 resin for 20 fixed 2* drops, we can make use of alchemy and do 9 runs for 18 of each book. This saves you 20 resin but costs you pretty much all your 1* books. Personally, in this scenario, I would likely just run the domain one more time, but that's something each player has to decide on their own.
We will also require 122.500 Mora which is another 60 resin.
Long story short, we will require another total of 260 resin, which equates to a little more than a day to max the characters talents at AR35.
And with this, I believe that we are finally, ultimately done with our Xingqiu.
- He is Lv.70 CHECK
- His talents are all Lv.6 CHECK
- He has the "optimal" artifact set CHECK
- He has a good weapon CHECK
And what did it cost us?
https://preview.redd.it/m60j82c9rqt51.jpg?width=724&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=040edadd0306e63c57f730fc7eb09d7faa7a0bf5

A whole sh*tload of time and resin we so desperately lack. Let's summarize the total time and resin we need.

Leveling: 1.600 Resin | 11 DaysCharacter Ascension: 380 Resin | 3 DaysWeapon Leveling: 160 Resin | 20 DaysWeapon Ascension: 160 Resin | 1 Day+Talent Leveling: 260 Resin | 1 Day+Artifact Farming: 2400 Resin~ | 15 Days
TOTAL:
Resin: 4.960~Days: 51~

Conclusion

I initially had a lot of stuff written here before the original post got butchered by the system but I'll try my best to get things back from memory.
Getting a single character to Lv.70 with optimal artifacts, decent weapon and talents all leveled to their possible maximum at AR35 will take 4.960 Resin and a total of 51 days. Might I remind you that there is currently 21 characters in the game?
Let me be reasonable and substract the "honeymoon resources" meaning the first time exploration and quest rewards. These set you up to get roughly 3 characters to Lv.70 with decent gear and their talents leveled. That still leaves 17 other characters, ignoring the Xingqiu we just made and these 3 characters.
It took you 51 days to get a single character to 70. Not even the maximum, that's 90. Getting here would take another hell of a grind, not to mention 5* artifacts with proper stats...
Now bare in mind that they intend to bring us updates every 6 weeks. There is already a pretty big roster of characters that we know will be released in the future. Add that to the list.

Long story short, people just want to play the game man.

Say what you will, this game is literally just anime diablo with the way the artifacts and weapons work.
Exploring the open world is hella fun, it really, really is. The first time you do it. After that it becomes a slugfest, desperately trying to find chests just so you can scrap together a few resources, since the "efficient" ways are all gated by resin.
I'm an avid member of the Resin Rehab Squad on the official discord server and always read through what people write in there, memes, good points, good ideas, arguments. I've been thinking about this stuff for a few days but work didn't quite allow me to sit tight and write a large essay that took me several hours to type.
"This guy is just crazy lmao, look how much he wrote". The staff members asked for exactly this kind of structured feedback, so I'll give this to them. While no doubt, they use the Resin Rehab channel for minor tidbits here and there, something like this is very nice for the eye as there's no chaos.
There is several other arguments people have brought up, such as:

It's a gacha game, get used to it lmao

These people speak as if they know everything surrounding this topic yet they're most likely completely new to the genre and have just heard things here and there, which they're now parroting.
I've played so many different "gacha" games, namely FFRK, FFBE, FFBE: WOTV, GBF, Danmachi: Memoria Freese, FEH, Brave Frontier, Last Cloudia, DBZ Dokkan Battle, DBZ Legends, Sin o Alice, the list goes on and on...
Not a single one of these games suffered the same issues Genshin Impact is.
The Stamina/NRG/Energy refill rate was always decent at, most commonly, 1NRG/3min and farming stages did not cost an exorbitant of NRG. You could play hours on end without ever running out and every single time you ranked up, your NRG would completely refill, going over the cap, albeit stopping the regeneration while you were over it.
Just like in Genshin Impact, you eventually get to the points where you're done with the story and start grinding out mats. **"The grind never ends" is a meme for good reason.**The problem now is, Genshin Impact does not allow this, unlike other games. It forces players to stop playing, removing all meaningful ways of progression.
I won't sit here and act ignorant tho, you can obviously spend hours exploring the world trying to scrape for chests, hopefully finding a few. After the initial pool of chests and puzzles has been taken care of though, the open world becomes very stale, very quick.
For me, though? I don't quite enjoy spending 2 hours looking for chests to only end up with 5 chests that all gave me garbage. To me, that's not fun. I'm not making meaningful progress, it's pretty much "a waste of time" doing this. If the respawn rate of chests was higher and it'd actually be worth going on treasure hunts, I'd love to do it, right now though, nope.
My daily routine, as you've partially read, consists of doing my commissions, spending my resin, collecting daily materials, hunting down elites and then logging off. This is all done in the span of 60 minutes.
I use a total of 160 "natural" resin per day, I use some after getting out of bed so it continues to recharge, head to work and by the time I'm done with work, 9h have passed and I've got 60+ more resin back. I say 160 instead of 180 because that would be hyper-managing it, which I really can't be asked to do. It risks making games feel like chores and I don't want that. I still love playing the game, even at AR 40 now. On top of these 160 resin, I use Primogems to refill 3 times a day, for 50, 100 and 100 gems again, netting me another 180 resin.
So as you can see, I get a lot of stuff done in roughly an hour. What now? I'm going to open my characters window and stare at all the characters I have which I can't play because I lack the resources to upgrade them. It's a damn shame man. It's the sole reason I no longer pull on the gacha and instead save all my Primogems for resin refills.
What's the point of getting new characters if you can't upgrade them.
I even went out my way and refilled my resin using 200 Primogems in the past weeks, simply to play more but after that you're done. The game literally prohibits you from farming any other meaningful materials by asking for resin you don't have and can't get.
In the first place, I'm really confused as to why the cost of Primogems increases with every refill, it's insanely greedy of them and it's the first time I see this. Most other games have static costs on NRG refills, though a daily cap is not uncommon but much higher than in Genshin Impact. I'm drifting off though.

It would kill the game if people end up maxing everything quickly

Well, thanks to the essay above, we've elaborated that it's quite literally impossible to ever max out everything or even a singular character.
That aside, why exactly would it kill the game? It's an argument often used but people never explain the "why".I assume these arguments are supposed to mean that once people have rushed the content and "are done", they'd quit the game. Let's put aside the impossibility of such a feat and assume it's doable.
Well, yeah? I don't see the problem? They'll all come back when there's new or more stuff to do. Like in pretty much every other game.
I used to play GW2 and still actively play FFXIV. I had only been logging into FFXIV the past few months to raid for barely 90 minutes a day. Aside from that, I didn't even bother logging in as there was nothing that was worth my time. They released a new update this week and I've picked it back up, playing it daily for several hours now.
There's nothing wrong with taking breaks. It's not just "hardcore gamers" that play this game for several hours a day. I work full time on my day job and still have roughly 5 hours of time each day to spend on my hobbies.

Removing the resin system is bad for the game

It is.
While I'm fully with you guys and agree that we drastically need changes, a removal is not an option. Resin is something they can and will monetize meaning they will never, ever get rid of it.
Do I like that? No, I really don't, but I know better to not run head first into a wall. Instead I'll try to find a workaround to make climbing that wall easier.
Changes have to be made or they truly risk losing players. Nothing is more aggravating than being forced to play a game a certain way.

It will get better, the game is still new!

...it really isn't.
The game has been in beta since February this year. That's 8 months, mind you. Almost 9.I've been asking around and all of the guys I asked who have had played the betas all said that their feedback included the terrible resin system. People were complaining a lot about it, back then too.
Fast forward to September 28th, global release date. Game has 0 changes or improvements to resin system, players are enraged. Chinese players take up arms and reviewbomb the game on TapTap, tanking the score to 4.8/10 Stars. Meanwhile most of us westerners simply play the game, ignorant to the awaiting dread.
This is something that really, really bothers me. Asking for feedback to then ignore it. Definitely taints their public image, but who am I to talk, as end consumer. I'm just the guy that pays for their product.

Resin recovery items, fragile resin.

From all the other gacha games I've played in my short life so far, the majority of them hand out items that refill energy like there's no tomorrow. They do it so much so that NRG becomes a non-factor, something players don't even really think about.
This does not apply to new games, and it would be a reasonable claim to say that Genshin Impact falls under that category as well.
Sadly it's not.
As stated above, the game has been in beta for 8 months and there were clear concerns regarding the limiting aspects of the system, yet nothing was done to improve this.

Thanks for reading, I'm up for discussion and improvements for my essay if you guys got any additional info for me.
Cheers

PS: Here's a tiny teaser for the first talent upgrade after the 5* Ascension:
https://preview.redd.it/j5o4nivhlxt51.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7833fb107b93e246c7c98946e704a2032d530b88
That 5* is one of at least 3 items that drop from the weekly wolf boss. And they're not a 100% drop, I got a diff once upon clearing this week...
Oh and also 120k mora and 4 gold books.
submitted by Iracy7 to Genshin_Impact

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