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Match Thread: England vs. Moldova [8.00pm BST | 3.00pm EDT | 12.00pm PDT]

England vs. Moldova

Kick-off: 8.00pm BST | 3.00pm EDT | 12.00pm PDT
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London
Weather: 16°C, Cloudy
This is a qualifier for the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

Standings

Team MP W D L GF GA Pts
Montenegro 7 4 2 1 14 7 14
England 6 3 3 0 21 3 12
Ukraine 6 3 2 1 10 4 11
Poland 6 2 3 1 12 7 9
Moldova 7 1 2 4 4 11 5
San Marino 6 0 0 6 0 29 0
Streams
Available to non-UK residents via Media Hint addon. Firefox | Chrome
Line-ups

England

Coach: Roy Hudgson
Position Player Number
GK Hart 1
DEF Walker 2
DEF Jagielka 6
DEF Cahill 5
DEF Cole 3
MF Gerrard (C) 4
MF Lampard 8
MF Wilshere 18
MF Welbeck 14
MF Walcott 7
ST Lambert 10
Subs: Ruddy (GK), Forster (GK), Smalling, Baines, Carrick, Cleverley, Milner, Barkley, Defoe, Young, Sterling, Townsend
.

Moldova

Coach: Ion Caras
Position Player Number
GK Namasco 1
DEF Golovatenco 3
DEF Epureanu (C) 6
DEF Bulgaru 13
DEF Armas 2
MF Ionita 7
MF Antoniuc 9
MF Dedov 10
MF Georghiev 11
MF Bordian 14
ST Sidorenco 20
Subs: Pascenco (GK), Cebanu (GK), Onica, Racu, Cebotaru, Doros, Suvorov, Boestean, Erhan, Pascenco, Grossu, Andronic

Match Highlights (All GIFs are made during the game, remember to refresh to see them!)

1': Moldova kick off at Wembley.
12': GOAL! Lampard lays it off to Gerrard who strikes it bottom left.

England 1 - 0 Moldova

17': Lambert plays it to Walcott who finishes, but is offside.
27': GOAL! Walcott's shot is parried Lambert who heads it in. 2 goals in 2 England appearances for Lambert.

England 2 - 0 Moldova

45': Welbeck | Booked for shooting after the whistle. He'll miss England's next game in Kiev.
46': GOAL! Welbeck takes it past the keeper and finishes.

England 3 - 0 Moldova

47': Half time.
__
Substitutions: Baines Cole
__
46': England kick off the second half.
51': GOAL! Lambert gets a second assist. He plays it to Welbeck who chips it in.

England 4 - 0 Moldova

60': Barkley Wilshere | Barkley comes on for his England debut!
70': Milner Lambert
93': Full time.
__
MOTM: Gerrard
Elsewhere, Poland draw with Montenegro. England go top of their group.
submitted by oscc to soccer

One of the reasons why handicapping is a myth

In a recent post, we confirmed that the game attempts to match you up against similar opponents in terms of skill.
Most matches will be relatively equal due to the way, your opponents are picked. In this blog post, we demonstrate that in 8 in 10 matches, the opponents were so evenly matched in terms of performance track records, that the lesser player minimum had an estimated 28 % chance of winning. In other words, matchmaking alone will ensure a scenario where most matches are interesting to both parties, because they have a fair chance of winning and losing.
Another noteworthy consequence of this observation is that expert players don't come up against unskilled or unsuccessful players.
In the example below, we look at a player called DiiZe-_. His best season result so far was staying in division 1. He never managed to win it. His win-draw-loss rate is at 54.7 % - 16.9 % - 28.4 %, and in 225 matches, he has scored 533 and conceded 372 goals.
DiiZe is in other words a pretty experienced player.
Now, let's look at Diize's ten latest opponents:
Name Matches W D L Best season G-diff
El_juanito33 1078 42% 15% 43% Div 1 - 16 PTS 161
firefox_oo7 284 46% 18% 37% Div 1 - 25 PTS 52
SLiiNGSHOT_16 897 51% 19% 31% Div 1 - 25 PTS 436
IrvinRdgz1309 341 39% 16% 46% Div 3 - 20 PTS -72
Henrying 505 46% 20% 34% Div 1 - 24 PTS 288
omaar89 1146 41% 18% 40% Div 1 - 25 PTS 39
BlitzeSaurousRex 277 46% 22% 32% Div 2 - 20 PTS 105
flanders6 493 45% 19% 36% Div 1 - 25 PTS 163
aramvp 366 43% 20% 37% Div 1 - 16 PTS 31
Frausto805 241 52% 20% 27% Div 1 - 24 PTS 171
It is absolutely clear that DiiZe didn't bump into any new or casual (=bad) players on his way. All his opponents were, like DiiZe, players who play a considerable amount of matches during a season and / or are highly successful for other reasons.
Please note that this example is a random example picked from a sample covering more than 200 players and their 3000 opponents, whom we collected the match history for. Hence, this conclusion isn't based on the single example above, but is build on a solid, statistical foundation, which is describes in further detail here:
http://futfacts.com/2016/02/09/elo-matchmaking-is-real/

Momentum and handicapping

It is difficult to summarize what momentum or handicapping is, as there isn't a strict consensus around it, but a common perception is that the game intervenes in order to help the lesser player out and create a more even match. This perception is sometimes referred to as either handicapping or momentum. "Handicapping" may refer to the perception that the game has a predefined bias, whereas "momentum" usually refers to the perception that the game will attempt to keep the match tight more dynamically.
Now, please consider these concepts in the light of DiiZe's match history: All DiiZe's matches were relatively even from the start, although some were more even than others. The only opponent who looks a bit over matched is IrvinRdgz1309, whom DiiZe however managed to beat 2-1. Where are the casual or new players?
They, of course, aren't there, because they were matched up against other less successful players. Players like DiiZe will not get matched up against someone, who just started playing, and has lost his previous 10 matches.
This leaves us with an intriguing question:
  • Why would EA intervene in a match to disadvantage a player like DiiZe? What's the possible motive?

Making things even more even?

Despite the lack of a motive, some people will argue that matchmaking doesn't ensure a sufficient degree equality, and that a concepts like momentum and handicapping might serve the purpose of leveling the playing field even more.
This argument is mainly contradicted by the fact that FUT matches aren't particularly even as it is. The percentage of draws - the most even result of them all - is low, and the same goes for +1 goal victories.
Goal diff FUT Top 5 leagues
0 (draw) 18% 26%
1 34% 39%
2 20 % 22%
3 20 % 8%
4 5% 3 %
>=5 3 % 2%
(Source: http://futfacts.com/2015/11/02/are-matches-made-even/. Note: +3-goal victories include DNF matches as well)
Hence, we have evidence confirming that the game strives for equality in matchmaking, but nothing indicates that it will attempt to make matches more even beyond that.
TL;DR: The assumption that the game attempts to keep new or casual players playing by handicapping their superior opponents is unlikely due to the fact that the game matches all players up against opponents with similar skills. Further, it is contradicted by the fact that matches aren't even in terms of results.
EDIT: Added links to relevant background info EDIT2: Added that the example isn't the only foundation for the conclusion, but that there is a huge sample supporting it: http://futfacts.com/2016/02/09/elo-matchmaking-is-real/
submitted by crlarsen to FIFA

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