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For Need for Speed Carbon on the PlayStation 2, GameFAQs presents a message board for game discussion and help. GCN, PS2, PS3, X360, Xbox, PC, Wii. NFSMods is not affiliated with Electronic Arts or its subsidiaries.
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Does God Exist?
How did we get here? How did life begin? How was the universe formed? What is consciousness? How do non-living things become living things? Is there a purpose to any of this?
Essentially these questions very simply comes down to two ideas: the universe is random, or it is non-random. That is to say intelligent design, which is God, or complete randomness.
Today we are taught, with all confidence and assurance, that the world in fact is completely random. We are taught that the world began randomly 13.7 billion years ago, and continued through random changes until we arrived at our own point in history.
We are taught, through mainstream science, that the world began as an infinitesimally small point, where time and space did not exist, and remained in this unknown state for an undisclosed period of time, since of course time did not exist. Then, something triggered a change of states, and suddenly this infinitely small point began to expand into both space and time. They tell us that all of this happened about 13.7 billion years ago to be exact. In fact we are told the beginnings of things not only billions of years ago, but so precisely that it extends into the sub-femto seconds. To be clear, femto is 1x10^-15 seconds, this means that there are 1,000,000,000,000,000 femto seconds in a single second.
For just a moment, let us discuss the weather, I promise you that it is related. Meteorologists cannot predict the temperature of the weather very well beyond 7 days, and beyond 10 days it is completely inaccurate. To reiterate, this is the temperature of the weather. This is not taking into consideration the precipitation, the wind speed, the wind direction, the humidity, cloud cover, storms, or really anything else. The reason that they are unable to do any of this is because of their data. They simply do not have enough of the current variables, or the movement of said variables, to be able to predict where they will be in the future. This leads to a phenomenon known as compounding error, or propagation of uncertainty. We can think of it this way; Let us say for arguments' sake that you have a 95% accuracy on your data predictions a day from now, this means that each day, you multiply that accuracy by .95 and your accuracy goes down. For a 10 day prediction at 95% accuracy for 1 day ahead, that leaves us at about 60% accuracy for day 10. Now do not be deceived, this is actually worse than it appears. This does not at all mean that you will be correct 60% of the time, in fact what this means is, that 60% of the data you are currently working with is in anyway useful for that 10 day prediction, 40% of your data is completely useless at best, but more likely will actually add significant variance to your prediction.
So now, forget about weather predictions 10 days in the future, let us return to the predictions about 13.7 billion years in the past. For data predictions, the compounding error works exactly the same going into the past as it does into the future. Science does not care about the arrow of time and cannot explain the existence of it, which itself is something notable, but I will not discuss it here but I will leave you with that thought. So let's see what our inaccuracy compounding would look like going to the beginning of the universe with this model:
Let us say, laughably I might add, that you have a 95% accuracy going back 1,000 years, in terms of the movement of the stars and the universe at large. This essentially means that you have 100% accuracy in the measurement of the current movement of the stars (which is a complete joke, but let us pretend), and have measured correctly 95% of the stars, not even mentioning non stellar objects, or interstellagalactic mediums. Forget about the ridiculousness of this for just one second for me to prove further how absolutely absurd this is. I put these numbers into google sheets and it was unable to display a number because it was so small, but it gave me 0 out to 30 decimal places, so the number was smaller than 1E-30. Same if we change this to 95% accuracy going back 100,000 years. When I changed this to 1,000,000 years, I finally got a number; 6.5E-306. This is not even a usable number it is so small, it is not meaningful in anyway. This again is if we assume we have a 95% accuracy of predicting 1,000,000 years into the past.
So, we are told that 13.7 billion years ago some things happened, then the universe continued to expand and expand into what we see today. At some point, the sun formed, and the solar system with it. Then the earth formed 4.3 billion years ago. Then, some crazy things happened;
- Life formed from some unknown process which cannot be reproduced and has not yet found to have been duplicated even within our own universe. From amino acids, to complex proteins, to RNA, into DNA, then finally into the first single celled organism. Science cannot tell you exactly how this happened, and yet they tell you that it did.
- Life moved to photosynthesis, also in an undefined and unknown manner, yet it of course happened.
- Life moved to consuming oxygen in what is known as the Great Oxygenation event. Unknown, undefined manner.
- Life moved to be multicellular, also in an undefined and unknown manner. This move here is one that scientists all agree upon was the most difficult transition for life to accomplish and is often cited as the main filter in the Fermi Paradox.
- Life moved to extreme complexity in what is called the Cambrian Explosion. Unknown and undefined trigger of course.
- Land - Unknown and undefined trigger
- Dinosaurs - Unknown and undefined trigger
- Monkeys - Unknown and undefined trigger
- Man - Unknown and undefined trigger
- Carbon-14: 5,730 years
- Uranium-235: 704 Million years
- Potassium-40: 1.3 Billion years
- Uranium-238: 4.5 Billion years
- Rubidium-87: 48.8 Billion years
There are a few issues with this, and that is with the assumptions that are made which are as follows:
- They calculated the half life for these materials correctly.
- The decay rate remains stable under any condition.
- The material being measured began with no trace of the daughter isotope, or that for the material you are testing the initial daughter isotope prevalence is known and is stable under all conditions.
- The parent-daughter isotopes are measured correctly.
- Half-life value calculation - Essentially what they do for this is to measure the weight of the parent and daughter isotopes and get a count rate. I found a very simplified explanation here - link. So where are the error factors found? Many places. First, the measurements of the initial weight, then the final weight, then there is error in the amount of time that you are observing for. But this is not all, there is also compounding error again when you extrapolate out beyond your observation time. Let us say after all of these errors add up to 0.5% error, leaving you with a 99.5% accuracy, you then have to compound this based on your observation time, and to the amount of time you have then calculated in your sample based on this half-life. To simplify, let us say you are measuring the decay rate of Potassium-40, probably the most commonly used in dating for earth history. If the half life number you obtained was calculated by observing decay for 50 years (this has never been done for this long before), and you then use this half life to determine your rock sample is 50 million years old (common age range cited for dinosaurs), you then need to compound the error of your initial half-life measurement in 50 year periods up to the 50 million years. Final accuracy of this - non-existent. It is so small it is incalculable.
- Stable decay rate over time - Apparently, there is some debate over this, but the general consensus is that it is relatively stable. Regardless, we are still assuming that we have done enough testing in the 60 years this has been around to correctly check everything that needs to be checked to confirm this before dating something back billions of years.
- Known beginning parent-daughter isotope ratio - When these rocks begin their decay is the moment they cooled after being spewed from the earth. In order for any of these calculations to be accurate, you must know the initial amount of the daughter isotope which started out in the material. Extra daughter isotope would increase the apparent age of the item you are measuring. To be completely honest, I could not find anything on the internet about how this is known and seems to me the biggest problem with radiometric dating. All that I could find were Creationist mentions of this topic. I will include one here, but likely you will not believe the heavily biased nature, though I must remind you everyone is biased so this should not preclude the from discussing such things. - Mechanisms That Can Alter Parent-Daughter Ratios
- Isotope ratio measurement - This is less important than the half-life calculation, as there is no compounding error here. This is the final inaccuracy added on top of the inaccuracy from the previously mentioned items.
- Too much carbon-14 found in materials which have been classically dated as very old. As mentioned about C-14 has a very short half-life, on the billions of years scale, of around 5,730 years. This limits the dating, according to theory, to around 50,000-100,000 years. Beyond this, there is not enough material to be measured. Read a paper about that here - Carbon-14 Content of Fossil Carbon
- Soft tissue found on dinosaur bones - I wrote an entire post centered around this one. Soft tissue should not be found intact on fossils which are said to be 70 million years old. If you don't believe me, read this article from The National Institute of Health - Soft tissue and cellular preservation in vertebrate skeletal elements from the Cretaceous to the present. Read my post here - One Conspiracy, One Truth
What is easier, for us to randomly be here by some chance so small that it is nearly impossible? That every single step of the way could have not happened, and yet it did? Which is a bigger leap of faith, us trusting in our own knowledge and understanding, or the simple idea that there could be a God who created everything?
Forget evidence, forget data, forget proof. Think about your own life, your own observations, and the things you have seen. You have no control over anything, and I do mean anything, aside from the decisions that you make. Even within this, you can only choose based on the confines of the choices you are given.
You may come to realize that in this life, no matter how much planning, how much saving, how careful you are, how much you learn, how hard you work, something can happen in an instant and can wipe all of it away, making all of your efforts seem pointless.
It may be blazing fires on the west coast which burn down everything you own. It may be a "pandemic" which causes you to lose your job and burn through savings and change all of your plans. It may be a car accident that leaves you crippled. Someone you love may die unexpectedly. Or hey, you might even win the lottery!
You are at the complete and utter mercy of the natural world around you at any given moment. My question to you is, are you so certain that the natural world around you is truly natural? How did we get here? How did life begin? How did the universe begin? Are the coincidences in your life truly just coincidences? How many coincidences must occur for you to consider the alternative? Has anything happened to you which is simply inexplicable based on what you believe to be true?
God is real, and He is calling His children home. You are no different, and He is waiting with open arms. Call on the name of Jesus Christ, ask Him for help and for guidance, and He shall guide you into all things.
For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten Son, that whoever believes in Him should not perish but have everlasting life. - John 3:16
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